Date: January 23, 2026

Source: Aspen Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service Report by: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

The Aspen and Snowmass luxury housing markets continue to show exceptional strength, bolstered by affluent buyers and ongoing wealth concentration trends, even as the national economy displays mixed signals. For these elite buyers, real estate in the region functions as a lifestyle investment and a store of wealth.

25Q4 National Economic Overview

Looking back at 2025, the national economy turned out to be far stronger than most analysts expected. Despite major uncertainty from tariffs, a federal government closure, and shifting policy signals, the U.S. economy did not merely ‘get through it’ - it instead expanded at a pace that surprised even seasoned forecasters, with the later quarters showing particular strength after a weak start to the year. Momentum picked up markedly in 25Q2 and 25Q3, with growth reaching as high as 4.3% in the third quarter, an outcome that would have seemed implausible earlier in the year, and early data for Q4 are strong. A key reason for this resilience was adaptation. Businesses adjusted rather quickly to tariff uncertainty by exploring new sources, renegotiating pricing, and leaning into inventory management. In some cases, companies ‘front-ran’ expected tariffs by purchasing early, which temporarily cushioned both production and consumer pricing. Meanwhile, many of the most disruptive tariffs were delayed or stayed, meaning that the feared policy shocks were muted compared to expectations. This combination of strong private-sector flexibility and a partial pullback in implementation helped sustain growth through the year.

Inflation also moved in a favorable direction. While tariffs added price pressure, the overall effect was muted because the effective tariff rate was closer to 10–11% (as opposed to above 20%), and only a portion of consumption is directly exposed to imported goods. Roughly, tariff-driven inflation impacts are likely to total slightly above one percentage point, not trivial, but also not runaway. Importantly, other disinflationary forces like cheaper energy and lessening shelter costs helped keep overall inflation trending downward, reinforcing consumer spending and reducing the drag from higher costs.

All that said, the headline growth numbers may overstate the real strength of the underlying economy. A meaningful portion of late-year GDP growth came from factors that are difficult to sustain: a one-time decline in imports, unusually strong government spending, a wealth effect paired with falling savings rates, and a surge in healthcare spending ahead of new Medicaid restrictions and projected declines in enrollment due to expiring Affordable Care Act tax credits. These forces amplified quarterly growth but cannot be sustained in the long term. Under the surface, the economy’s forward trajectory depends heavily on whether corporate investment stays strong and whether consumer spending, particularly spending by high-income households, continues to carry demand. That is meaningfully dependent upon the performance of the stock market, with earnings expected to be strong in 2026.

The standout economic driver in 2025 was artificial intelligence investment. Estimates suggest AI-related spending may have exceeded $400 billion, approaching 1.25% of GDP. That is an extraordinary injection of capital into the economy, creating demand for high-wage labor, large-scale construction, specialized equipment, and supporting industries. This wave of spending has become large enough that it materially shifted national investment patterns, and without it, overall growth would have been meaningfully weaker.

The main risk heading into 2026 is that the economy now faces an unusual mix: weakening labor markets, inflation still above target (closer to 3% than 2%), but with continued strength in investment and consumption. Historically, that combination is rare. If hiring remains sluggish and the unemployment rate rises, the Federal Reserve will probably lower rates to address a weakening economy. Moreover, 2026 also carries a major institutional wildcard: potential leadership changes at the Fed and uncertainty over how monetary policy might shift. Dr. Eisenberg says: “In short, 2025 was a remarkably strong year, but 2026 will likely test whether growth can persist without one-off supports like AI investment. The chances of a recession in 2026 are not trivial, but I am quite optimistic that we will be able to avoid one.”

25Q4 National Housing Market Overview

The housing economy in 2025 was tepid after the frenzy of the early pandemic years. In most parts of the country, there was little to report. Existing home sales were largely flat, and new construction activity was mixed and generally range-bound, with some year-over-year softness at points during 2025. The market never found a catalyst powerful enough to meaningfully shift supply, affordability, or demand. Looking ahead into 2026, it is difficult to see what would materially change that dynamic without something dramatic, either a sharp drop in home prices, a significant bump in wages, a large and sustained increase in housing supply, or a meaningful decline in mortgage rates. None of those appear likely in the near term.

Interest rates are central to this standstill, but the story isn’t as simple as ‘rates are too high.’ The spread between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year mortgage spread narrowed modestly in mid-to-late 2025, providing some relief, though not enough to significantly improve affordability. Mortgage rates around 6% are not historically extreme; what is extreme is the price level of housing. In prior periods where rates were much higher (like the early 1980s), home prices were far lower relative to incomes. Today’s affordability crisis is driven more by elevated purchase prices than by rates alone. Even if rates drift down modestly, that will not address affordability in a meaningful way, especially in a market that remains structurally and systemically underbuilt.

Construction therefore becomes the key constraint. The country remains chronically short on housing, particularly at the affordable and entry end of the market. There is plentiful inventory above $1 million, but far too little supply below roughly the $500,000 threshold, where demand is deepest. Builders would surely construct more if they could do so profitably at lower price points, but the cost structure has made that extremely difficult. Input costs remain high, and tariffs have amplified this by increasing the cost of materials and components, many of which are sourced internationally, including China. This ranges from lumber and tiling to small but essential items like electrical junction boxes. Labor is another major bottleneck. If builders attempted to ramp up construction substantially, skilled labor availability would tighten quickly. On top of that, land costs continue to rise, and regulatory burdens restrict flexibility, especially in building smaller or lower-cost housing formats such as tiny homes. Put simply: even when demand exists, builders face a ‘high-cost, high-friction’ environment that prevents supply from expanding enough to systematically reduce price pressure.

Multifamily construction also looks subdued. Vacancy rates are still rising slightly due to the delayed completion of projects started earlier and rent growth has been weak and generally slightly negative as rents slowly normalize from the rapid run-up of 2021–2022. Because rent levels are already high relative to incomes, and because new absorption is slow, the incentives to build aggressively in multifamily remain limited in most regions, aside from select tight markets in the Northeast and Upper Midwest.

In 2025, the expectation that home prices might significantly decline did not materialize. Inventory remains low enough that the market may still produce small year-over-year nominal price increases. However, because price appreciation has lagged inflation, real prices have been declining. Regionally, the market has begun to reverse its COVID-era leadership: many Sunbelt markets such as Tampa that surged earlier are now among the weakest, while places such as New York City, Chicago, and Cleveland are seeing relatively strong price growth because they lagged previously and are now catching up. Overall, the housing economy is still stuck: underbuilt supply, affordability constrained by high prices, interest rates that may not change much, and a construction sector unable to scale due to input costs, labor limits, and regulation. The result is likely another year of struggle across the housing ecosystem for builders, realtors, and consumers alike. Dr. Eisenberg comments: “The crux of the issue is the shortage of entry-level housing. Governments need to promote policies that will help builders supply the millions of missing units.”

25Q4 Colorado Overview

Colorado’s economy is still growing, just no longer at the breakneck speed of recent years. Output continues to climb steadily, with GDP reaching $578.6 billion in 25Q2, up from $561.8 billion a year earlier, a gain of nearly 4.0%. Population growth, fueled by births and migration, remains an economic tailwind, though rising housing and living costs are clearly taking some of the wind out of its sails. The labor market remains healthy by historical standards. Colorado’s unemployment rate stood at 3.9% in November, down from 4.6% a year earlier and well below the 11.7% peak reached in May 2020, though still above the 2.6% pre-pandemic low in May 2019. Over the past year, Colorado has seen declining unemployment, bucking the national trend, and it remains below the November U.S. rate of 4.4%. In Pitkin County, November unemployment registered 4.4%, near a post-COVID low and well below the 6.1% rate recorded a year ago.

For 2026, be prepared for steady but subdued growth, not a boom nor a bust. After years near the top of state rankings, job growth has decelerated, with economists forecasting only about 0.6 % employment expansion, even as real GDP is projected to rise nearly 2.9%, slightly above the national pace. Slower population gains and labor constraints are slowing growth even as consumption and productivity hold up. No recession is forecast, but structural headwinds, from housing affordability to the state budget crises (Colorado lawmakers are entering the 2026 legislative session facing a significant budget gap, roughly $850 million for the fiscal year beginning July 1, 2026), suggest a moderate, ‘slow-cooked' expansion rather than rapid acceleration.

Statewide, the median price of a single-family home through December 2025 was $560,000, a decrease of 2.6% from last year, while the average price declined 3.6% year-over-year to $709,361. In the condo and townhome market, the year-to-date median price dipped 2.9% to $400,000, although the average price rose 2.4% to $608,700. Through December, closed sales statewide were up 2.4% compared to last year, while new listings declined 4.8%. There were 21,689 active listings at the end of the month, down 2.4% year-over-year, and this represents a 3.0-month supply of inventory. Across Colorado, homes are selling slightly below asking price: the average percentage of list price received at closing for the year stands at 97.8%, just below 98.2% in 2024. The average days on market rose modestly from 70 days last year to 79 days in 2025, reflecting slightly slower but still steady market activity.

Colorado’s housing market has clearly shifted gears, and in 2026, it looks far more normal than frantic. Inventory is rising, price appreciation has slowed to a crawl and is declining in some areas, and buyers finally have options, but affordability remains an outsized issue. Mortgage rates in the low- to mid-6% range mean that even modestly priced homes carry hefty monthly payments, keeping many households on the sidelines. Prices are no longer surging, but neither are they collapsing, largely because Colorado still faces a structural housing shortage and limited new construction. In other words, supply has improved, but not enough to overwhelm demand. The result is a market that is cooling without freezing: fewer bidding wars, longer days on market, and selective price cuts. Dr. Eisenberg notes, "Expect 2026 to deliver stability, not excitement, a housing market shifting ever-so-slightly more toward buyers.”

25Q4 Aspen Overview

In 2025, the median price of a single-family home in Aspen surged to nearly $14.7 million, up from $13.4 million a year earlier. The average price declined 4% to just under $19 million, but the average sold price per square foot rose 5% to $3,565. Aspen townhomes and condominiums sold for a median price of $3.45 million, the same as in 2024. The average price, however, rose 27% to just under $5.8 million, while the price per square foot gained 6% to $3,285. In Snowmass Village, the median price for single-family homes rose just 2% to $8.13 million, while the average price decreased 7% to just under $8.9 million. The average price per square foot rose 14% to $2,207. Snowmass Village townhomes and condo prices dipped 26% to $2 million, while the average price declined a similar 24% to just under $2.9 million, and the average sold price per square foot slipped 11% to $1,969.

Across the Aspen/Snowmass Village market, closed sales were down 22% from last year (primarily because Snowmass condo sales declined by 50%), although total sales volume decreased just 4% to just over $2.6 billion. Aspen single-family homes sold for 93% of their original list price, up from 92% a year earlier. Aspen condos and townhomes averaged 95% (up from 94% in 2024), while Snowmass Village single-family homes rose from 94% to 96%, and Snowmass condos slipped slightly from 96% in 2024 to 95% in 2025. Days on market for Aspen single-family homes fell by nearly a quarter to 184 days, while Aspen condos stayed on the market an average of 164 days (up slightly from 154 days in 2024). In Snowmass Village, single-family days on market dropped from 187 to 110 days, and condo days on market declined 60% to just 131 days.

While the broader housing market is cooling modestly, the high-end residential real estate market remains exceptionally strong. Corporate profits remain robust, labor productivity is high, and equity markets are performing well, all of which continue to expand the purchasing power of affluent households. Even as the IPO market remains uneven, it has improved enough to generate new liquidity and confidence among high-net-worth buyers. This matters because luxury housing is less sensitive to mortgage rates and local affordability constraints and far more influenced by wealth creation and capital markets. Recent reporting has underscored this divide, with the nation’s most expensive housing markets posting sales above $100 million, including several in Colorado. Importantly, demand remains strong not just at the ultra-trophy level but also in the $10 million-plus segment, which continues to transact with remarkable consistency. In short, while the middle of the market recalibrates, the upper end continues to perform exceptionally well.

Aspen’s housing market is defined by extreme scarcity, global cachet, and deepening wealth. The town is not getting materially larger, but the buyer pool is getting significantly deeper. Geographic constraints, large tracts of public lands surrounding the community, and high costs mean limited opportunities for meaningful new construction. A scarcity of supply, combined with Aspen’s lifestyle appeal and international brand, makes it uniquely resilient. Buyers are not simply purchasing housing; they are buying access, prestige, and long-term value preservation. As a result, price sensitivity is low, and downturns tend to manifest as pauses rather than pullbacks. Even in periods of broader economic uncertainty, Aspen continues to attract capital from the highest tier of buyers, reinforcing its position as one of the most insulated and durable luxury real estate markets in the country. Dr. Eisenberg comments: “The population of multimillionaires will undoubtedly grow as AI firms go public, and a portion of that newly created wealth will inevitably flow into ultra-luxury markets such as Aspen and Snowmass Village.”

Aspen Single-Family Highlights

• The median price for a single-family home in Aspen in 2025 was $14.7 million compared to a median sale price of $13.4 million in 2024, a 10% increase. The average price was just under $19 million, down 4% compared to 2024. Although the average price declined year over year, the average sold price per square foot increased 5% to $3,565.
• There were 79 closed sales of single-family homes through the end of the year, a 22% increase over 2024, bumping year-over-year dollar volume up 17% to nearly $1.5 billion.
• At the end of the year there were 98 single-family properties on the market, nearly the same as at the end of 2024.
• The most expensive single-family property sold in Aspen in 2025 was for $58.3 million, compared to a record $108 million home sale in 2024.
• The year-over-year days on market declined from 240 to 184, while the percentage of sold price to original listing price rose from 92% to 93%.

Aspen Condos/Townhomes Highlights

• In the Aspen townhome/condo market, the median price through December was $3.45 million, unchanged from 2024. The average price however, gained 27% year-over-year to nearly $5.77 million, with the average price per square foot increasing 6% to $3,285.
• There were 106 sales of townhomes and condos in 2025, five fewer than 2024. Dollar volume surged 21% year-over-year to just over $611 million.
• Aspen condominium and townhome inventories decreased by about 10% year-over-year, with 80 units on the market as of December 31, 2025.
• The most expensive condo/townhome sold in 2025 was $40 million compared to $31.95 million in 2024.
• Aspen condominiums and townhomes averaged 164 days on market, up from 154 days last year. The percentage of sold price to original listing price rose from 94% last year to 95% this year.

Snowmass Village Single-Family Highlights

• In Snowmass Village, the median sale price of a single-family home in 2025 was $8.125 million, compared to $7.95 million last year, a gain of 2%. The average price dipped 7% to just over $8.8 million. The average price per square foot rose 14% to $2,207.
• There were 35 sales of single-family homes in 2025, up from 30 last year. Dollar volume slipped a slight 1% year-over-year to just over $283 million.
• There were 23 single-family homes for sale in Snowmass Village at the end of the year, compared to 19 at the end of 2024.
• The most expensive single-family home sold in 2025 in Snowmass Village was $22.25 million, slightly below the record $24.5 million sale in 2024.
• The days on market for single-family homes in Snowmass Village in 2025 was 110 days, down meaningfully from 187 days in 2024, while the percentage of sold price to original list price rose from 94% to 96%.

Snowmass Village Condos/Townhomes Highlights

• In 2025, condominium and townhome median prices in Snowmass Village slipped 26% year-over-year to $2.00 million, while the average price declined 24% to $2.85 million. The average price per square foot decreased 11% to $1,969.
• Closed sales in 2025 declined by more than half to 83 sales, which in combination with lower prices, pushed dollar volume down 65% to just under $237 million.
• At the end of the year there were 102 townhome and condominium units on the market in Snowmass Village, compared to 160 last year.
• In the Snowmass Village condo/townhome market, the most expensive property sold in 2025 was $15.15 million, compared to the 2024 high sale of $15 million.
• The percentage of sold to original list price dipped from 96% in 2024 to 95% in 2025, while the days on market declined from 326 days in 2024 to 131 days in 2025.

Source: Aspen Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.